The availability of high-quality data on the built environment in Harris county facilitates analyses beyond what is possible for most other counties. Furthermore, being situated on the Gulf Coast, Harris County is highly prone to flooding due to its low-lying coastal geography (several bayous, creeks). The Houston metropolitan area also has a long history of notable flood events (e.g., Memorial day floods (2015), Tax day floods (2016), Hurricane Harvey (2017), Tropical Storm Imelda (2019), etc.). Finally, Harris County is also among the 20 most racially segregated urban counties in the United States and has been subject to much scholarship around Environmental Justice. Harris County thus serves as an important and valuable testbed for our analysis.
A growing body of work is now assessing the implications of so-called ‘federally overlooked’ flood risk. Recent work from Houston has identified areas that face federally overlooked risk as those that may potentially be exposed to a 100-year flood event, implied by the Fathom’s U.S. 2.0 model (Bates et al., 2021), but are situated outside of the FEMA-delineated 100-year flood zones (Flores et al., 2023). Flores et al. (2023) find that more than 950,000 or 16 percent of Greater Houstonians reside in federally overlooked 100-year flood zones, most of whom live within areas at risk to pluvial flooding. Adding to concerns regarding social vulnerability and environmental justice, neighborhoods with higher proportions of Black, Hispanic, and Asian residents are also more likely to overlap with federally overlooked flood zones (Flores et al., 2023). Federally overlooked flood zones are thus often highly populated in Houston, and disproportionately so by racial/ethnic minority households. However, it is important to acknowledge the limitations of using the Fathom U.S. 2.0 model to identify flood zones. While this model provides a more comprehensive view of flood risk compared to FEMA delineations, it is still a predictive tool and subject to uncertainties. As is noted by Wing et al. (2019), such models could oversimplify local hydrological and infrastructural complexities, leading to potential inaccuracies in flood risk measurements.
See Latest Research:
Flores, A., Collins, T., Grineski, S. et al. Federally-overlooked flood risk inequities in the conterminous United States. Sci Rep 15, 10678 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-95120-9
Federally overlooked flood risk is strongly associated with the socioeconomic characteristics of neighborhoods. Using data across a range of spatial granularities, we found that flood-prone areas outside of the SFHAs tend to be more socially and financially vulnerable, in ways that are relevant to environmental justice. Specifically, these overlooked neighborhoods tend to be characterized by higher poverty rates, lower property valuations, larger shares of Black and Hispanic households, and lower levels of flood insurance, as compared to SFHAs-designated areas. The presence of federally overlooked risk intersects directly with social vulnerability and equity concerns.
Further research is required to critically assess appraisal practices and evaluate the reliability of their assessments. Despite revisions to requirements, there is evidence that appraisals may still be influenced by historical frameworks rooted in discriminatory policies. Appraisal methods established by the U.S. federal government and the appraisal industry in the last century prioritized racially uniform, White neighborhoods as the most valuable, and positioned White homebuyers as the reference point for neighborhood desirability, potentially still disadvantaging communities of color today (Korver-Glenn, 2021). We do not know the extent to which racial bias affects seemingly objective judgements of building quality and condition, nor in which housing market bias is most pervasive.
The question is then whether the fact that buildings are overlooked and, therefore, less stringently regulated, lead to them being less likely to be insured and sufficiently protected from flood hazards? And, when they flood, is their condition and quality more likely to be degraded than buildings that do fall under flood regulations? Conversely, we might also ask whether higher valued real estate receives greater attention in flood mapping efforts. We cannot conclusively answer these questions using the data that is employed here, but future research could examine whether condition or quality disproportionately worsens in these areas after flood events or could survey residents in these places to ascertain whether these events are consistent with their experience.